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Абхазия вернется в состав Грузии?


Накануне парламентских выборов серьезно обострилась политическая борьба в Республике Абхазия. Блок оппозиционных сил во главе с партией «Амцахара» понимая, что времени мало стремится любой ценой получить хоть какой-то кусок «политического пирога».

Не реализованные властные амбиции лидеров оппозиции, а также стремительное падение рейтинга (действия Блока поддерживает около 2% населения) вынуждает «борцов с режимом» идти на крайние меры. Благодаря случайной утечке из социальных сетей стало известно, что на смену «…нудным и малоэффективным митингам, бесконечным заседаниям и съездам с дежурными резолюциями по смене власти и созыву Народного схода…» оппозиция должна перейти к решительным действиям.

Основной костяк сторонников насилия – А. Бжания, А. Квициния, Н. Какубава, И. Агроба и О. Ломия. Сценарий же достаточно прост – зимой т.г. изобразить митинговую активность населения и провести точечные силовые провокационные акции в отношении органов власти и правопорядка республики. Для физического участия в организации беспорядков предполагается задействовать криминальные круги, которые имеют силы, возможности, а главное опыт противостояния властям и желание дестабилизировать ситуацию, ведь как говориться в мутной воде рыба крупнее.

Понятны и финансисты данного сценария. Грузия через своего партнера и учителя в лице неправительственных организаций Великобритании давно и надежно отслеживает ситуацию в Абхазии и готова дорого заплатить за демонстрацию несостоятельности абхазской государственности и нестабильность на территории притязания.

Остается единственный вопрос – что получится в итоге? А в итоге получится утрата суверенитета и возврат в состав Грузии. Игры с легитимностью власти неизбежно приводят к активизации заинтересованных сторон. Грузия с удовольствием наведет порядок на свой лад, ЕС выставит Россию политическим авантюристом, а абхазам достанется нелегкий удел новых политических реалий.

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